Mid West Crop Tour – Final Conclusions
I was hoping to write this post last night, but dinner, presentations and then chatting with all of the scouts meant I did not get back to my hotel room until almost Midnight.
My key theme for this crop tour is “Can the Great Eastern Crop Lift Up the Not-So Great Western Crop”? Our tour through Ohio, Indiana and Eastern Illinois resulted in the best corn crop I have ever seen. I did not go on the 2009 crop tour (started in 2010) when we had our record yield of about 165, but based on feedback from some of the scouts, this year’s eastern leg easily exceeded that crop year. The old low yields of 100-120 are now 150-170 and the old high yields of 200-225 are now 250-275 or even higher. The Eastern Corn Belt will make a great crop.
However, the Western Corn Belt does not look as good. The 2009 crop was very even across the corn belt, while this year’s western section is very variable. There are some good yields out there, but the very late start to the crop due to the cold winter and wet spring has this crop behind and it will take perfect weather to get a good crop (not necessarily a great crop). Therefore, to get above a 170 average US yield will require the Eastern Corn Belt to finish perfectly and the Western Corn Belt to finished well (with no early hard frost).
Based on what I saw on the tour, it is my opinion that we could see a 170 average corn yield, but I highly doubt we will see the 180 yields that some are discussing. In no way will Illinois hit 205 (unless all of our scouts missed all of the good corn in the state). It should be a record yield, just not the bin buster record yield. I may be wrong, but until the grain is in the bin, it does not matter too much.
All-in-all, the crop tour is one of my favorite things to look forward to each year. The days are long and the nights can be even longer, but meeting all of the people involved in the tour is the best part. I eagerly await the start of the 2015 crop tour.
Paul Neiffer is a certified public accountant and business advisor specializing in income taxation, accounting services, and succession planning for farmers and agribusiness processors. Paul is a principal with CliftonLarsonAllen in Walla Walla, Washington, as well as a regular speaker at national conferences and contributor at agweb.com. Raised on a farm in central Washington, he has been immersed in the ag industry his entire life, including the last 30 years professionally. Paul and his wife purchase an 180 acre ranch in 2016 and enjoy keeping it full of animals.
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