Only Two Iowa Counties Projected to Get Soybean ARC Payments
Corn has been the big payer of ARC payments for 2014 and 2015 crop years and even 2016 appears to be getting good size payments in several states. Soybeans on the other had has not paid any PLC payments for 2014-2016 (2016 is not final, but there is no chance of the final MYA price dropping below $8.40). Soybean ARC payments have been sporadic and the size of payment is usually lower than corn payments.
I am updating my spreadsheets for soybean payments and started with Iowa. The 2014 crop year resulted in 51 Iowa counties getting ARC payments. Clayton County had the largest payment at $65.27 and Palo Alto was not too far behind at $60.12. The 2015 crop year bumped the number of counties reporting payments to 67 (out of 99) with Cedar and Clayton tying at the highest with $67.49.
Now we come to 2016. The current soybean MYA price from FSA is $9.55. Kansas State University is estimating a soybean MYA price of $9.57. I have assumed the FSA price of $9.55 and inputted that data along with the NASS yields for Iowa counties. All counties reported yields, however, final ARC yields can vary a bit from NASS yield. In most cases, the final soybean revenue for each county was so high compared to the guarantee revenue that a bump down in yields by even 5 bushels would not change the bottom line.
For 2016, we are estimating that Dubuque County might get a soybean ARC payment of $27.97 per base acre (remember final payment will be lower due to the 85% of base acre adjustment and the sequestering adjustment). Washington County is expected to receive $6.23.
The soybean benchmark price is $11.87. 86% of this number is $10.21. Although the final MYA price is lower than the “guarantee” price, the primary reason for almost no county in Iowa getting a payment is the increase in soybean yields. The average bump in yield for 2016 was 23%, thus resulting in little or no soybean ARC payments for Iowa counties.
I will release the Iowa breakdown along with the other key corn belt states later. I still need to do a fair amount of inputting.